Trade Setup For 1st August

Here Are My Zones For August

Resistance

1271.25-1272.25
1278-1279
1284.50-1285.50
1290.50-1291.50

Support

1264.25-1263.25
1257.50-1256.50
1250.50-1249.50
1242-1241

I am not trading today as I want to take some time away to get things together.

Trade Setup for July 31st

Here are the zones I am watching for July 31st

Resistance

1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50
1308.50-1309.75

Support

1280-1279
1274.25-1273.25
1264.25-1263.25
1257.50-1256.50

My Outlook

Nothing has really changed since yesterday in my outlook. Oil bounced yesterday which could shake up the market a bit though it didn't do so yesterday. Apart from that though there is nothing to update on.

My Focus

Currently we are trading at the 1282 area in the overnight market. The pivotal area on the upside for tomorrow is the 1291 area. It is the previous high in the market. I do suspect we can break it from the looks of this run up so far but not sure if it will happen tomorrow. If we show significant weakness up there I will look for some form of pullback.

On the bottom end we have 1274 which is the pivotal support area. If we reach down there I would be looking for some strong buying to come in to help prop the market over the 1291 area. I think it will be important to see which one is met first, 1291 or 1274. If we hit 1291 and retrace first, its not a good sign for the buyers. However if we reach 1274 and bounce, it could be a nice set up for a new high.

I have become concerned about trending days recently. They seem to catch me out because I am limiting myself to only s/r trades. Now I prefer trading at s/r levels however on trending days it is rare to see the market use the s/r levels in the direction of the trend for pullbacks.

I do have other ways of trading but recently have been limiting myself to purely s/r levels. I define strongly trending days by the action of the Tick. Like we saw on Tuesday the market wasn't interested in any extended selling. At least for the entire morning.

Now my way of trading these trending days has been using the Fast and Slow EMA's on my 5 minute chart. They commonly are a form of moving support or resistance in trend days. You can see the way it rides the fast EMA on the Tuesday.

So when a trend day is identified via the Tick action being rather one sided, and the EMA being already respected once and following roughly a 45 degree angle, I will use that as a moving s/r in the direction of the trend. This can help me stay on the right side of the market instead of looking for the opposite move simply because I want to trade.

I am still taking my casual approach as seen in the journal with my decrease in number of entries. Trades will be at the s/r levels, either fixed or moving s/r depending on the type of day. Stops will be hidden behind strong market areas and initial profit targets will be placed in easy to reach spots. The second position will be trailed should the first target be taken.

Trading for 31 July

USD/JPY

Sell Stop 107.70 TP 107.50 SL 107.90

Buy Stop 108.70 TP 108.90 SL 108.50

GPB/USD

Sell Stop 1.9760 TP 1.9730 SL 1.9790

Buy Stop 1.9910 TP 1.9940 SL 1.9880

GBP/JPY

Sell Stop 213.50 TP 213.00 SL 214.00

Buy Stop 214.50 TP 215.00 SL 214.00

Trade Setup For 30th July

Usd/Jpy

Buy Stop 108.65 TP 108.85 SL 108.45

Sell Stop 107.70 TP 107.50 SL 107.90

Gbp/Usd

Sell Stop 1.9760 TP 1.9730 SL 1.9790

Buy Stop 1.9910 TP 1.9940 SL 1.9880

Gbp/Jpy

Sell Stop 213.50 TP 213.00 SL 214.00

Buy Stop 214.50 TP 215.00 SL 214.00

Trade Setup For 30th July

Here are my zones I'm watching for the 30th July

Resistance

1262-1263
1269.25-1270.25
1277.25-1278.50
1285.75-1286.75

Support

1257.50-1256.50
1250.50-1249.50
1242-1241
1233.50-1232.25

My Outlook

Well we certainly threw a curve ball yesterday as Oil fueled the market into a nice gain. It is in fact enough to have me assessing this as a 1-2-3 bottom for the moment.

The VIX has made a similar pattern as the indexes but just in reverse. We now appear as though the volatility and put option interest is ready for a decline.

Oil and Gold made a surprising decline as I thought we would at least make a small bounce. At this point I will go with the flow but Oil does seem to be impacting the indexes pretty heavily lately.

The USD made some further gains yesterday which is also adding weight to the stocks making a run higher at this point. As always though I will take things with a grain of salt as each day occurs.

My Focus

We are currently trading at the 1261 area in the overnight market. As my bias is slightly bullish at this point, I would like to see a small retracement from the market prior to making possible further gains. Ideally we would see some reluctance to sell off past the 1257 area however a retest might be warranted down at the 1250 area. If either of those are met with volume and/or tick extremes or divergences, then I will look for some further gains to the upside.

If we gap above the 1263 area at the open, I would be looking for some signs of weakness to hit at the 1270 area. I wouldn't put too much weight behind a move down from there as a trend reversal though. If I do enter short up there I will keep the trade on a pretty tight leash and be ready for a trend continuation should we show signs of doing so.

For me the focus is going to remain on doing my best to trade only at the s/r levels. As much fun as riding a bucking bull is by trading everything under the sun, yeah right, I want to get my game back on track.

There is only a few ticks of lenience I am giving my s/r levels. Yesterday I made some decisions to trade in the middle of s/r zones which I would like to refrain from doing today. I am going to continue keeping tight stops behind strong areas and place my initial profit target in easy to reach areas. Trailing the second position as usual. Again, I'm going to take the casual approach to my trading but remember to only trade at the s/r zones.

Trading for 29th July

Here is my journal for the 29th July

Today we have the Consumer Confidence Index being released at 10am. So around that time I will try to remain pretty cautious of entering any new trades. Otherwise the rest of the day the market will be left alone from the influence of news. Right now we are trading at the 1240 area.

I will be looking for some possible weakness at the 1243.50 area through the Tick and/or volume. If we break that level I will test longs but still remain cautious with them beneath the 1251 area. Again I am not too confident in any longs beneath the 1251 area but should we show good signs of a reversal down at 1233 I will look at testing the long side.

9:50 We haven't really gone far from the open at this stage. Right now I suspect the news will need to hit before we decided to pick a direction at this point, if we pick one at all. Volume has been high as we moved marginally lower but is now tapering off on the 2 minute. The Tick has remained strong sticking above the zero line pretty well at this stage. Being so early there are no clear signs to me right now with either side. At this point I sit on the sidelines and wait until after the news hits. The safest way to be at this stage.

10:07 I entered short at 1245.75 with my stop at 1247. It was based on a push on news above resistance with a Tick extreme on big volume. We hung around the 1246 for a little bit of time but then pushed higher. I kept a relatively tight stop so I'm not too fussed. It wasn't following the plan exactly but I made the attempt. Next trade I will try to make it closer to the plan. The tick is showing strength sticking above the zero line and volume has supported the higher move at this point.

10:30 Hmm out for a loss again on the short side. I entered at 1247 with my stop at 1248.25 and my stop was hit. I wasn't at a resistance level again. I am trading the failure to push higher after the volume extreme and Tick extremes. Right now I am going to trade better if I stick to the plan. Volume has tapered off on this move sideways and the Tick hasn't made any strong moves beneath the zero area. This market is up so I am best working with that.

10:56 I'm in short at 1248.25 with my stop at 1249.50. Reason being the resistance area hit with a divergence on the Tick and lower volume on the second push higher. I just took my trade off for a tick gain as we weren't pushing beyond the zero area on the Tick. It was a risky trade and I wasn't willing to give it much space. This Tick has been showing stocks holding up like a mofo. Yet somehow I still would like to short the market.

11:23 I am definitely best leaving this market alone today. I have made some less than ideal trading decisions. I just shorted the market again at 1247.25 with my stop at 1248.50. The idea was a 1-2-3 top with the Tick moving into the negative for the first time today. Volume had also tapered off on the move. I'm going to call it a night right here and work on improving tomorrow. Considering I did many things that were not in my plan tonight I think I have come out pretty well. I do believe I have moved back into the short trading problems I had previously.

11:29 Well I just took another short trade for a point loss. Impulse trade mania. I'm closing my platform right now.

Daily Wrap Up

Wow is all I can say. I seemed to be on holiday last night whilst someone else took over and traded my account. I honestly am a bit confused as to where some of my decisions came from. Of 5 trades, really only one of them was according to my plan. It was the third trade which was a move from the 1251 resistance area with a divergence in the tick and declining volume.

Beyond that one trade at the resistance, I would have liked my focus to be turned to trading the long side. I'm not sure there is much I can say beyond recognizing the fact that most of my trades today were impulse based trades. This seems to be a recurring problem I face with my short trades. Not wanting to miss out on what is a "sure thing" move has me entering some short trades that don't exist or too early if they do exist.

The good part of today was that even though I took 4 out of 5 hits, I haven't taken a massive hit in my account. I much rather take the trades and lose so I have something to learn from rather than not trade and wonder what would have been. There is some learning to be done from today so I will accept the way I traded. It doesn't make me a bad trader, I just made some bad trades.

Today for following my focus I am giving myself an 'F'. The saving grace was that I did take a good trade at the resistance area even though it didn't pan out. It was the one trade that was in my plan and I did take it.

Trade 1a: 1.25 Loss
Trade 1b: 1.25 Loss
Trade 2a: 1.25 Loss
Trade 2b: 1.25 Loss
Trade 3a: 0.25 Win
Trade 3b: 0.25 Win
Trade 4a: 0.5 Loss
Trade 4b: 0.5 Loss
Trade 5a: 1.0 Loss
Trade 5b: 1.0 Loss

Trade Setup for 29th July

Here are the zones I'm watching for the 29th July:

Resistance

1243-1244.25
1250.50-1251.50
1262-1263
1269.25-1270.25


Support

1233.50-1232.25
1222.25-1221.25
1214.25-1212.75
1202-1200.50

My Outlook

The indexes all made a break lower yesterday with some decent force. Not much really to say which wouldn't be repeating myself from yesterday on that front. I'm still holding my slight bearish bias.

Ok my VIX data is no longer showing the massive upward candle it had on the 15th July. If that is the case then things change a bit. I thought that would have made it more acceptable to run higher but now its not exactly the case. Today we had a move higher. Again I would just be repeating myself now.

Gold and Oil are still pretty much the same. Nothing really to comment there. The USD is testing its recent strength so how far it tests will be interesting. I'm not convinced it is going to continue its decline into new lows.

My Focus

The market currently is trading at the 1234.50 area in the overnight market. I am being open to the market taking a breather after yesterdays strong selling. The 1243.50 area is the pivotal point for me today. If we reach there and can't show some strong buying I will look for a turn back down, possibly to make new lows.

If we gap above there at the open we could see some decent buying enter the market so we could see some strength hit at that area. If thats the case I will look to join the buyers. I'm not sure how strong 1233 will hold up as support so I will only trade long there if we have some strong buying occur evidenced by the Tick and volume.

I'm still taking my casual approach as placing less pressure upon myself is helping me trade. I am only trading at the s/r levels with stops hidden behind strong areas and initial targets in easy to reach places. The second lot will be trailed should the first lot be taken.

Trading for 28th July

Here is my journal from the 28th July

Today we have no major news releases so we are left to continue on from Friday. We are currently at the 1254 area and look to open in the 1250-60 congestion area. I am skeptical of any trades in this area so unless there are some clear signs for a short at the 1258 area I will avoid it. Otherwise long trades will be in play above the 1263 area. I am taking the casual approach again this week.

9:45 We have pressed above the 1258 resistance area and showed some hesitation. The Tick and volume didn't give any clear signs of reversal so I stuck on the sidelines watching. I don't like this area in here so I am going to let it pass me by and wait for some less congested price areas to deal with. The Tick is showing some pretty positive action by stocks at this point and volume moved up pretty well when the market moved higher.

10:15 Having a hard time staying awake at this point. Market action is in the 1256-60 area which I am avoiding as it is too messy for me. Volume has been declining from the open which tells me either we don't like higher prices or we simply aren't willing to commit to anything in this area. the Tick has been making higher lows showing an increase in buying interest at this point but its hardly been strong on the upside from where I'm sitting.

10:49 We have moved down from the 1260 area to roughly 1254. This is not really a market suited to my trading so for now I sit on the sidelines waiting. The Tick has begun expanding a bit which is a good sign for some loosening up of this market. Volume is still pretty light which confirms for me that traders are hesitant to enter this area on the market with force. We have made a possible double bottom in the market though it doesn't appear very strong in the sentiment department.

11:48 We have spent the last hour moving down without a good chance for entry on the short side. I guess this means today will be a sidelines day. The Tick has moved into negative territory and refrained from hitting the positive area strongly. Volume is still pretty light on the day though at the extension of this downward leg we are seeing growing interest as seen by volume. Possibly gearing up for some sort of bounce?

12:13 Bed time. This market left the station without me and wasn't pleasant enough to offer me a solid entry point. No worries. I am happy that I stuck to the plan by staying on the sidelines as my plan wasn't suited to the days market.

Daily Wrap Up

Today was a good display of keeping out of a market that doesn't suit my style. After some initial buying at the open we turned at the 1260 area and became a trend down day. Being that we were still in the 1250-60 mess area I chose to stay on the sidelines.

The market took its time breaking the 1250 area and then I was unable to find an entry beyond there. That being said, I am happy with my performance today. I stuck to my plan very well, I was looking for a possible short at 1258 but we extended beyond to 1260. There wasn't any strong tick or volume extremes so I hung back.

These strong trend days are not suited to my trading unless I get on early. I do have guides in my plan to take them but right now I am sticking to the s/r levels mainly. For following my focus I am giving myself an 'A'. No trades today but I followed the plan.

On another positive note, the bugs seem to be fixed with the latest update of my trading platform which is good news.

Trade Setup For July 28th

Here are the zones I am watching for July 28th:

Resistance

1256-1257
1262.75-1263.75
1269.25-1270.25
1277.25-1278.50

Support

1251.50-1250.50
1246-1245
1240.25-1239.50
1233.50-1232.25

My Outlook

At this point my view is neutral with a slight bearish bias. The charts are showing some downward mannerisms though the 1250 area has stopped the SP in its tracks twice now. I am still waiting to see if we continue the move into lower lows or if we find support prior to reaching the previous low. Until it becomes more evident I wouldn't want to put too much weight on either side.

The VIX appears as though it could be gearing for another run higher. The way it is looking, the put option demand is in a position to increase largely. It could go either way though so I will keep my eyes on it this week.

The equities saving grace last week was the decline of Oil and Gold. It has a long way to go if we are expected to use it as a step to bringing stocks back up to scratch. We could possibly see Oil make another move upward which runs out of steam prior to reaching its highs. This could lead the stocks to new lows and present what I might consider a selling extreme. Should that be the case, I would then look for signs of a bottoming market more closely. At the same time Gold would also need to show a decline as the USD possibly strengthens as traders move away from the safe haven.

The USD does appear to be getting some balls back. Against the AUD we have seen it gain hardly any ground since late May. Against the JPY it has been gaining steadily since March this year. Against the EUR is has hardly made any ground since March this year. This does signal to me that buyers of the USD are having a hard time pushing it higher at this point.

So for me, these things do possibly tell me a bottom could be coming in the next 1-3 months. I'm not a fortune teller though so I could be completely wrong. If things play out in an ideal fashion, it should equate to strength coming into the US economy and the market.

My Focus

Currently we are hanging around the 1252 area in the overnight market. I get the feeling we could see a gap beneath the 1250 area at the open. If that is the case, then I would look for some weakness to hit the market if we reach the 1251 area.

If we meet the 1257.50 area I would also be looking for some possible weakness to be shown through the Tick and Volume. It is a messy area in between 1251 and 1257 though so I'm not crazy about a trade there. Again I will only be testing the long side once we pass the 1263 area for the moment. Unless of course we get a strong extreme selling reading at a support level beneath there.

I am sticking with the trades only at s/r levels as they are working well for me. I am continuing my casual approach to my trading as it is loosening me up a bit. I was more relaxed last week with my trading which was good to see. I converted across to the live account with my short trades well. The Wednesday was a bit rough but some good lessons were learnt.

I am keeping the stops tight and initial targets will be in easy to reach places. The second position is trailed if the first target is met.

Daily Signals on 29th July 2008

EUR/USD Analysis

Based on this daily chart, we can see we already have a signal to buy because there are " 3 outside up" pattern but based on this 4H chart



we can see there are a resistance, so I think it's better to wait it break that resistance (1.5757)





Forecast



Day Trader : -

Swing Trader : Up





Recommendation



Day Trader : wait until it break 1.5757

Swing Trader : Buy but it's better to wait until it break 1.5757





USD/CHF



Analysis



Based on this daily chart, we have a good signal. it's already rebound from our channel resistance line. So I think it'll go down.



Forecast :



Day Trader : Down

Swing Trader : Down



Recommendations



Day Trader : Sell

Swing Trader : Sell





That's all. Happy Trading

My Trading Strategy

Hello all,



I'll post my trading strategy, basically I trade based on 3 thing, that is:



1. Trend line

2. fibonaci retracement

3. Candlestick pattern



OK, let's see this chart:







1. Trend Line



the easiest way to spot the trend is comparing between the candle in left and in the right of your chart. if candle in your left is below than your right its mean you have up trend. Then make a trend line.



2. Fibonaci Retracement



After you can spot the trend, next step you have to do is draw fibonaci retracement. I use only 0.0, 38.2, 61.8 and 100 line. based on your trendline you can make fibonaci line. put 100 line at your left corner of your trendline and 0.0 line at your right corner of your trend ine.



and this is how its look



3. Candle stick pattern



The last thing you should do is waiting to get a good signal to entry. And I do this based on candle stick pattern. I'll tell you about this pattern in my next posting.



and this is how its look



to determine Target points, Stop loss and trailing stop, I'll tell you on my next posting.



Thank you all

1st Week Performance (21 July -25 July 2008)

Hello All,



I'll post my performance for this first week.





so, annually return is 89,90 %

Trade Setup For 25th July

Here are the zones I am watching for the 25th July:

Resistance

1255-1256
1262.75-1263.75
1269.25-1270.25
1277.25-1278.50

Support

1246-1245
1240.25-1239.50
1233.50-1232.25
1222.25-1221.25

My Outlook

Now we have a bit of a patience game over the next week or so. If we pick up on the acceleration of selling here we may go to new lows. That would fit my initial thoughts on this bounce not being the bottom. However if we fail to pass the lows made mid this month things could be looking better for the long side.

The VIX appears to be making another run, if we follow my thoughts from last week, we could have opened up the doors for higher readings on the VIX. Not much is happening with Gold and Oil at this point, both are looking to bounce, how high is the question to ask.

The USD hasn't made much of a change though for it to continue its strengthening it cannot afford to weaken where it is now. To break its recent weakness it needs to break the current trend lower it is following.

For me I am keeping my bearish outlook for the short term following on from yesterday. I will remain that way unless we shows signs of strengthening prior to reaching the previous low.

My Focus

Currently we are hanging around the 1251 area in the overnight market. The pivotal area for me today is the 1263 area. I am looking for possible early strength which is hit by some selling power at 1263. Anything beneath there is stronger on the selling side for me and any long trades will be kept on a short leash. If we gap lower at the open I will look for some selling pressure to hit should we reach the 1255.

I will keep trades restricted to the s/r areas. Any long trades will need to be at the support areas with extremes shown on the Tick and volume. Anything less with be left alone. Stops will be hidden behind strong market areas and initial profit targets will be in easy to reach places. The second lot will be trailed.

Trade Setup For 24th July

Here are my zones I'm watching for 24th July:

Resistance

1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50
1308.50-1309.75

Support

1278.50-1277.25
1270.25-1269.25
1261.75-1263
1256-1255

My Outlook

Yesterday gave us a pause for the recent rise we have seen. I am leaning towards some movement lower or more consolidation right now. The reversal we have seen from the lows does look much better than I first expected. I'm not convinced it is a turn of broader trend yet but I do believe it is stronger than I first anticipated.

There isn't much to report on the VIX. Gold and Oil have both seen decent sized declines which is positive for the stocks. That leads me to also put more weight on this turn we have been seeing. It may in fact be the bottom if Oil continues its decline as it has been the major contributor at this stage to global inflation. The cause of many countries worries.

The USD has seen the strength it's needed. My guess is that the Oil and Gold funds are moving out of those two respectively and into the US economy. It would make sense.

My Focus

Currently we sit at the 1280 area in the overnight market. The speed of the move up over the past two days has been fast so we are likely to see an extended consolidation or small drop.

For me the pivotal area is 1278. If we gap beneath that at the open I would be looking for some weakness to enter should we reach back up to the 1278 area. If we are going down, the 1270 area is where I would be looking for some strength to enter the market. However I don't believe it will be as strong at holding as 1262. There is likely many traders stuck in that 1262 congestion area prior to us rocketing off late on Friday.

If we gap up at the open, 1291 is the important area for us to break through. If we can't do it and some weakness hits, I'll be looking for some possible downside movement to push us back into yesterdays range.

Trading For 24th July

Here is the journal from the 24th July:

We have important news! Today is the first day this week where we have important news during the trading day. We have the Existing Home Sales at 10am so I will be cautious around that period.

Right now we are at the 1281.50 area and I didn't put in an option for that. Reason being that I don't particularly want to trade inbetween the 1286 resistance and the 1278 support. It is messy up there with the EMA's and such. Therefore I will wait for a break of those areas before I attempt a trade today.

9:50 We have broken out of the range we held yesterday which is good. The Tick had been relatively neutral until we just broke, now it's beneath the zero area. Volume has been picking up as we decline so it will be interesting to see how the day pans out. For the moment I'll just stick on the sidelines waiting for the right time.

10:16 We came down to the 1270 area support but we didn't make a large tick extreme nor a big volume extreme. It had me cautious of entering on the long side so I have left the trade alone at this point and will wait a bit longer for something else. The Tick has moved into the positive but not by much at this point. Volume is declining on this leg up which is also concerning for the buying side.

11:09 My Tick data is currently missing from my charts as I needed to upgrade my platform. So for now I am on the sidelines trying to get it back. We bounced at the 1270 area and reached 1275 before turning back down. We broke the 1270 area and are now beneath it. Volume increased on the move lower. At this point I am waiting for a possible move to 1262 where we may see some bigger buying come in. That is if the Tick is back in action by then.

11:29 Tick still not working. Not happy Jan! If I can't get it back soon there is no point in me staying up to trade.

11:58 Tick has remained shafted. We appear to be having a meager bounce here but it is hardly inspiring. Volume has declined as we moved higher so I don't suspect we have see the days low just yet. For me its time to call it a night. The only opportunity I had to trade was the long down at 1270 but I wasn't confident in the long trade there. It turned out it was simply a small bounce in a bigger decline.

We didn't get a retrace to the 1278 area that would have triggered a short so I didn't get a chance on the short side. Ah well, at least it shows I can stay out when things aren't ideal.

Daily Wrap Up

There really isn't much I can say about today. It was trend down for the whole day pretty much, these are usually the days that catch me out if I'm not in from the beginning.

I did in fact find it good that I recognized a sellers market early on and didn't try to force a long trade at the 1270 support. We did get a decent sized bounce but on days like today it is best to stay on the right side of the market.

It was disappointing that my Tick data wasn't updating during the day. Of course it is restored with the end of day update, that doesn't help me during the day though. I have just downloaded the latest upgrade for the system so hopefully most of the quirks have been ironed out. If not it will be time to look for a new platform.

Daily Analysis on 23rd July 2008

Hello All



GBP/USD





Let's take a look on this daily chart





Yesterday candle is closed below the green line, it mean that we have a signal to go short (sell) and it mean make 38.2 fibonaci line (2.0029) as a resistance line. it'll go at least to 1.9840 then to 1.9760 then to 1.9560.



But, be careful because today we will have BOE minute at 8.30 GMT.



Forecast :



Swing Trader : Down



Recomendation:



Swing Trader : Sell TP: 1.9840, SL: 2.0035





Good Luck all

Update Daily Analysis on 23rd July 2008

GBP/JPY



Based on 4H Chart, it already breaks 0.0 fibonaci level (213.87) then it really make strong bullish and also there are I found continuation pattern (3 white soldier).





Forecast:



Day Trader : Up



Recommendation:



Day Trader : Buy TP:216.00 SL:213.00

Trade Setup For 23rd July

Here are my zones for 23rd July:

Resistance

1277.25-1278.50
1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50

Support

1270.25-1269.25
1261.75-1263
1256-1255
1246-1245

My Outlook

The buyers came through with the goods late yesterday which is a positive sign. The NDX was in trouble at the open yesterday but all the indexes managed to come through with a good run.

Leading into 1280 on the SP and 11,760 area on the DJIA is some traffic that was caught out on this downward run. It may prove to be a battle to get through but the momentum is up at this stage.

The VIX pulled out a good downward move signaling a possible end to the big selling we have recently been seeing. Will it last longer than a couple of weeks or will it turn back down to continue this downward bias in the market?

Oil is helping bring some optimism back into the market with its decline. As long as that is occurring it is a good sign for companies which means equities get a boost. Gold attempted to make a run for higher prices yesterday but has seen some selling pressure hit.

The USD managed a better day yesterday but is far from out of the woods. Oil's decline will help the USD ease.

My Focus

The late run yesterday has opened up the doors for some continued buying tomorrow. Currently we are trading near the 1275 area. If we see a decline down to the 1270 area I will be looking for some strength to enter the market. If we go beyond there, the 1262 area will need to hold to keep the buyers in control.

I'm not keen on the selling side at this point so I will leave it be for the moment. I believe we will see some selling early on but the support levels are likely to garner some extra buying power. I won't cross it out at this point though, I will be prepared to short at the resistance levels should the market present some extremes up there.

I'm continuing to take a casual approach to my trading, not writing as much in my journal so I can focus on the market. Finding things to keep me occupied whilst we are away from my levels is keeping me from jumping in the market prematurely.

My stops are going to be placed behind strong areas and the initial target in easy to reach places as per normal. Things are going well right now so it's a matter of continuing to do more of the same and not becoming overconfident. I will look at making short trades with the live account but not hold myself restricted to that. I don't want any extra pressure placed on the trading.

Trading For 23rd July

Here is my journal from 23rd July:

No major news again today. At this point we are hanging around the 1280 area so it appears as though we will get the gap up at the open. The plan remains the same as earlier, looking for the market to pullback early on. Ideally we would hit the 1270 area but it may end up being just a close of the gap. I'll keep my eyes on 1278 to see if there is a reluctance from the stocks to drive lower.

9:45 In early on the rise here at 1277.25 with a stop at 1275.50. Initial target was at 1279 and taken pretty much right away. Reasons for the trade was 1278 resistance turned support area with volume declining on the down move and the Tick moving into positive territory. Will trail the stop, currently it is at 1276.50.

9:49 Moving stop up to 1277.25 so I don't take a loss on this trade. Registered no volume on the up move and had Tick come down to zero area. Will close out trade if we move into the negative area on the tick. Should really see some follow through buying here. Out of second position at 1278.

10:15 Not much happening in this market. Tick is remaining positive, volume is currently increasing on the moves higher. A bit mixed so I'll stay on the sidelines until we show better indications of what is happening.

10:37 I took a couple of short trades and took losses on both of them. Too early on the short side again it would seem. Second trade my platform became delayed so I couldn't see what was going on. Had to close connection and reconnect. By the time that happened I was taken out of the trade. Pretty disappointing.

10:57 Short again. In at 1286.75 with stop at 1288.75. Looking for a small 1-2-3 top after the extremes on the buying side. Initial target is at 1285. If that is reached the target after that would be 1282 area.

11:00 Initial target hit and taken. Second is now trailing. 1283 area is in fact level of concern next.

11:04 Exit taken at 1283.75 as we made a tick extreme on the selling side and look to be climaxing on the volume side. In this market I'm not willing to give the shorts much room to move.

11:14 In long here at 1284 with a bounce from the fast EMA with Tick extreme and almost volume extremes. Initial profit target at 1285.50 was hit pretty quickly.

11:20 Out at 1284.50 as we were showing signs of coming back down rather than taking off.

11:23 Time to take another look at this market unbiased to either side. We turned right at the 1290 resistance area and have since come down to meet the fast ema. We made a selling extreme on the Tick just prior to my last trade. Volume was pretty strong into the selling but we have seen bigger increases on the buying. Right now it is trend up unless something stops us from making a higher move here.

11:48 In long at 1285.50 in the chop and out at stop which was at 1284. Actually I have no idea why I entered that trade. It was not a good idea to go long so close to a resistance area. Definitely a lesson to be learnt on that one. Time to call it a night I think. An interesting day filled with too much to talk about right now. I'll get to it tomorrow.

Daily Wrap Up

Hehe, where does one start with today? No doubt my broker loves me on days like today as I made a fair few trades. Rather out of the ordinary for me but it is also why I am sort of happy with the day.

I started off pretty shaky today but managed to pull myself together and keep pushing. It is interesting to see the difference with my trading when it is my live account. I didn't follow my plan as accurately as I do when trading the simulation account.

I managed to make a good trade early on, getting on in the right direction of the market. I took a good exit with the initial weakness. There was a strong opportunity to get on again but I didn't place the trade, something to work on there.

The second trade which was a short was testing a turn at the resistance area up here. We had shown a volume extreme and a Tick extreme so it was a good trade. I took a small loss on it as I recognized we weren't too quick to move lower.

The next trade irritated me a bit because I entered short again but soon after entering my platform became delayed. I had to disconnect and reconnect to the data feed which meant I couldn't monitor the market. Not the ideal position to be in when at the most crucial part of my trade. As a result I ended up taking a maximum loss on the trade whilst reconnecting.

I took a break after that to reassess my trading which showed good signs of maturity in my trading. When I came back I saw that my previous shorts weren't such a bad idea, they were just early. I jumped in short again and made a nice trade.

The next long trade wasn't part of my plan as it was not a s/r trade. It turned out profitable but not something I want to continue doing with my trading. The last trade was of a similar mode and something that was pretty much the opposite of my trading style.

I feel like I am writing negative stuff here which doesn't really match what I think about the day. It was good that I took so many trades today, I would say it was over trading but it was what I needed to get rid of some trading jitters. It showed me that I can trade with my live account, take some decent losses but I also make some decent gains. I was pretty close to break even today after brokerage so it was not an expensive learning curve.

Ideally I can now get on with the trading according to the plan with my live account. For following my plan today I give myself a 'D'. It's pretty hard to get below a 'D' so I can look forward to improving on that tomorrow.

Trade 1a: 1.75 Win
Trade 1b: 0.75 Win
Trade 2a: 0.5 Loss
Trade 2b: 0.5 Loss
Trade 3a: 2.0 Loss
Trade 3b: 2.0 Loss
Trade 4a: 1.75 Win
Trade 4b: 3.0 Win
Trade 5a: 1.75 Win
Trade 5b: 0.5 Win
Trade 6a: 1.5 Loss
Trade 6b: 1.5 Loss

Trade Setup For 22nd July

Here are the zones I'm watching for 22nd July:

Resistance

1263-1261.75
1269.25-1270.25
1277.25-1278.50
1285.75-1286.75

Support

1251.50-1252.50
1246-1245
1240.25-1239.50
1233.50-1232.25

My Outlook

Not much happened from yesterday as it was relatively quiet. For me that signals trouble for the buyers as we really need to get off to a good move soon. Without it we can see the sellers taking control and keep momentum on their side. Apart from that there isn't really anything worth noting at this point.

My Focus

Currently we are hanging around the 1251 area in the overnight market. If we open down here I would be looking for a move back to the 1256 area to have some weakness enter. I haven't marked 1256 as a s/r level but it was one I wanted to put in. It is too close to the other levels so have left it out but will keep a mental note of that area should we see any extremes occur near there.

I will keep my eye on the action as we hit the 1252 support area. I will see if there are any signs of life from the buyers down here or if the sellers exhaust themselves down there. Otherwise beneath 1252 it is the same as yesterday, the momentum is likely to swing back to the sellers.

1262 is going to be an important area for any continued buying. If we reach there and can't break through, the sellers will be able to gain the upper hand. Right now there is more sway to the selling side. I will be cautious with my long trades and monitor them carefully.

Trading Steup For 22nd July

Here is my journal from the 22nd July:

There is no major news again today so we are left to trade on our own. There are a few different news announcements but none are major. We haven't moved far from the 1252 area so the game plan is still the same as earlier. 1256 may be a resistance point but more in focus is 1262. Beneath 1252 the 1245 area is a spot for a bounce but I think we are more likely to sell down. Again I'm going to be taking things pretty casually.

9:47 Who knows? We opened at the 1251 area and have been hanging around 1250 since the open. Volume isn't telling me much at this stage. The Tick was pretty negative at the open but has managed to build up to where we are now. It is attempting to push the boundaries into positive territory. The NQ opened with a fair whack down so something technology related must be pulling at the market. For now, sit back and enjoy the ride.

10:30 The market has been moving higher from the lower open. We reached as high as the 1260 area before making a volume and Tick extreme. It would have been nice for it to occur closer to my resistance area at 1262 but not to worry. There are plenty more opportunities to present themselves in the market. I'll keep my eye on the 1252 area should we show some strength down there. I would keep a tight leash on any long trades at this point as I think we are currently continuing yesterdays tone down. Volume at this point has been increasing on the upside swings though and declining on the downside swings which is interesting.

10:51 I'm in short at 1257.25 with my stop at 1259. Initial profit target is at 1255.25. We need to drop beneath the 1257 area pretty quickly otherwise it could bounce higher. Reasons for entry was the 1-2-3 top just beneath the 1262 resistance area. I suspect I had my resistance area a bit off. Also have the extremes on the tick and volume at the top. Initial target is taken so the second lot stop has been moved to 1258. 1254 could be an area of concern and then 1252 is the decider if we reach that.

11:02 The second position I was trailing was stopped out at 1258 for a 0.75 loss. Gain of 1.25 points on the trade. We couldn't sustain the selling from the stocks as seen by the Tick.

11:10 In short again at 1260.75. This time it's for actually reaching the resistance area on a couple of tick extremes and big volume. Stop is at 1262.75 which is probably not necessary but it gives it some time to move. I could be trying too hard to go against the trend with my short trades but its in the plan. I am in earlier on this than I have previously been entering shorts. I need to have more patience with this and expect it to move against me a bit prior to possibly moving lower.

11:19 I took my position off for a 0.25 gain as we weren't showing follow through selling from the stocks. I believe I was a bit early on the move which is another reminder for my short trading. What the good part of that though was that I recognized I was entering early so I knew what I was getting into and could be prepared mentally for some movement. There may be a second chance to short but for now I'll wait.

11:31 How many times can I short this market? In short again at 1262.50 for the resistance area up here with extremes registering on the Tick but volume not supporting the higher move at this point. Stop is at 1263.75 and initial profit target at 1260.75. Finally starting to see the Tick hit under the zero area.

11:37 Bringing stop down to 1263.25 as we shouldn't reach there if we are going lower.

11:51 We spent some time moving sideways and have continued the move lower right now. I have brought my stop down to 1262.50 so I don't take a loss on this trailed position. 1258.50 is looking like it will be an area of concern for the sellers at this point so I will assess the action if we reach there.

11:57 I took an exit at 1258.75 as we are slowing down there and some stacked orders are in for the buyers. Could be premature but for now I'd rather take the gains and get some sleep. The Tick was showing signs of strength from the stocks. Well it is time for me to go to bed.

I was trying to fight the trend all day which isn't great but the upside is that I managed to extract a few points from the market doing so. The first trade wasn't ideally part of the plan but was a solid pattern. I thought that maybe I missed the right resistance area but later on the market showed me I did have a good level there. A good day.

Daily Wrap Up

Beyond fighting the day's trend I think the day was good. I mainly traded at the resistance zones and the only trade I didn't was due to thinking I may have misplaced my area. It was a trade I would take again though.

I kept my stops pretty tight, the second trade was a good example of that as I let the market have some space but recognized we were having trouble moving lower. I noticed the Tick was pretty positive the whole day but didn't have any strong opportunities to go long with the market.

The casual approach worked well again and allows me to give my trades a bit more room. I need to be careful of trading simulation too much though as I am at the stage where it can probably do more harm than good right now. For following my focus I give myself a 'C'.

Trade 1a: 2.0 Win
Trade 1b: 0.75 Loss
Trade 2a: 0.25 Win
Trade 2b: 0.25 Win
Trade 3a: 1.75 Win
Trade 3b: 3.75 Win

Daily Result: 7.25 Gain

Daily Analysis on 21st July 2008

Hello



How are you guys today?



GBP/USD



Take a careful look on this below chart

and this





I think it'll go down because it's already rebound from 38.2 finbonaci line (2.0029) but to confirm that we have to wait for today candle finish its form. if today candle close below green line its mean we can go short (sell).

Trading for 21st July

Here is my journal from the 21st July:

Today we don't have any major news to sway the market one way or the other. We currently are looking at opening with a 5 point gap or so up. From up here I would be looking for a move back down to the 1258 area at the open for some possible strength to come in. If we become a runaway market from the open I will look for some possible resistance to hit at 1270. I would like to see some good extremes if we reach that area for exhausted buyers.

9:43 I am taking a casual approach again so I won't be making many notes in here. We opened at the 1264 resistance area and used it as a support to move higher. Right now we are struggling at the 1268 area to break higher. Volume has been rather light this morning which makes me think there is a bit of uncertainty today. The Tick has sustained itself above the zero line at this point which is a sign of strength coming in from the stocks.

10:07 We have broken the 1264 support area but are hesitating at the Fast EMA. Volume was declining across our sideways move and we finally moved into negative territory on the Tick. At this point the Tick looks ugly to me and volume is hard to get a handle on. Right now I don't feel in sync with the market so I will take it very easy and most likely refrain from trades. I know this feeling I have right now and it is commonly associated with impulse trades. Will just stick to the rules and enjoy the market action.

10:41 Not much happening at this stage. We have been moving down but at a rather slowish pace, or maybe I'm just used to the volatility we have been seeing lately. We popped beneath the 1264 area and are now back up at it showing some hesitation to move higher. We aren't getting much information from the Tick as it moves rather sideways. It is looking as though stocks don't want to sell off today as the Tick is holding the positive zone pretty well. It is odd that the ES would see the down trending pattern it has been showing at this point. Volume is showing rises on the moves lower at this point. No trades have presented themselves for me so far.

11:21 This market is incredibly slow today and I'm finding it hard staying awake to watch it. Probably good though considering I was feeling off my game tonight. We are still showing reluctance to sell off by the stocks through the Tick. Volume has tapered right off with this slow down in market action. The quiet before the storm, just need to figure out if the storm wants higher or lower prices.

11:34 Well it looks like I was thrown a bone here. I entered short at 1263 for this move down. Stop was at 1265, initial target was at 1261.50 and was taken. I now have trailed the stop at 1264 in case we decide to push back higher. We are coming into some strength from the buyers here at 1261. If we can break this area things might be pretty promissing.

11:46 I took an exit at 1259.50 with the rest of my position. I think it could have been a bit too early but the Tick was registering some selling extremes and the price action was showing strong buying coming in here. It was a good trade.

11:51 Well I am calling it a night. In amongst what was slow action today I managed to hold on until a decent sized move popped its head out. With low volume all day it was a bit harder to interpret the action, I noticed we had died off more though with the sideways action even though buying was predominant on the tick. All in all a good day with all said and done.

Daily Wrap Up

Well I imagine it was as quiet for many traders as it was for myself. The action was slow and the volume wasn't really great. In those circumstances it's hard to spot volume extremes as the levels I am used to don't appear.

I took a few trades early in the morning with the simulation account just to get myself used to entering and exiting trades again. It had been quite some time since I last traded so I wanted to get back into the motion of it. I don't count them in my results today even though they were profitable.

I stuck to my game plan of only trading at s/r levels today. The trade I entered today was the only strong trade opportunity at the s/r levels and I took it. It was odd because prior to that moment I didn't have any trades come to me and then all of a sudden I picked up on the market weakness as shown by the failure of buyers to prop the market up even though the Tick was positive all morning.

I kept my stops tight and traded pretty much in an ideal way. I was casual today which was great as it is working for me. The next step is to transfer the trades on the short side from simulation to live trading. For following my focus today I give myself an 'A'. I kept good patience and followed the plan as best as I could on a day like today. Coming out with a reasonable gain on these days can be tough.

(Simulated Trades)
Trade 1a: 1.5 Win
Trade 1b: 3.5 Win

Daily Result: 5.0 Gain

Daily Analysis on 18th July 2008

USD/JPY



Analysis



4H Chart



Based on 4H chart, this pair is in very strong bullish. But we have to wait it break 38.2 fibonaci line at 106.35. If it can break this line it'll go up to 108.50.



Daily Chart



Based on this chart, it'll go up to 109.41 as 61.8 fibonaci line.





Forecast



Day Trader : up after break 106.35

Swing Trader : Up after break 107.65



Recommendation



Day Trader : Wait

Swing Trader : Wait

Trade Setup For 8th July

Here are the areas I am watching for 8th July:

Resistance

1251.75-1253
1257.5-1258.50
1265-1266
1272-1272.75

Support

1243-1241.50

My Outlook

I guess one could speculate that this is going to turn soon but you could be thinking that for a long time. I'm going to keep a neutral bias as this thing could last a long time but also turn at the drop of a hat. From a longer term perspective the May highs just look like a breather in the downtrending market from Oct 07'.

The VIX continues its steady rise indicating that Put Option interest is slowly rising. What is most concerning about this rise is that it is slow and steady, just like the markets decline. I'm guessing many buyers are getting caught out mistaking the slow decline for signs of a turnaround. I know I thought that only last week.

The only positive note coming from this market right now is Oil's decline yesterday. Not a big sell off but it is a start. I suspect we could see a decent sized move lower at this juncture. Gold has moved down rather strongly from its range highs which also signals good things for the US. It is not pivotal though as we still sit in the range.

The USD has seen some strength over the past couple of days but it isn't anything to write home about. I'll keep my eye out for further declines that could signal the US economy gaining its strength and possibly some momentum.

My Focus

I want to be careful with this market now as it is in a very temperamental area. The pattern suggests further downward movement and I will stick with that until we see something stand out to say otherwise. We are currently at 1244 in the overnight market and my last support area is at 1242.

At the 1242 area I will be looking for some strength but any long positions will be kept on a tight leash right now as other areas don't suggest a strong move higher just yet. If we open beneath 1252 I would look for some weakness if we reach that area.

If we gap above the 1252 area I would think 1265 needs to be exceeded and held to turn into a buyers market. If we gap open beneath 1242, I think all bets may be off for buying and would look for some weakness at 1242.

At the s/r levels I am watching for weakness or strength seen from the Tick and Volume. All stops are placed behind strong market areas and the initial profit target will be put in an easy to reach place. The second lot will be trailed if the first lot is taken.

To address the problem I had yesterday with exiting prematurely, I will state the reasons for exiting early according to price, Tick and Volume analysis. I will also continue using the opening gap strategy with the simulation account and also the offsetting strategy.