Trading for 29th July

Here is my journal for the 29th July

Today we have the Consumer Confidence Index being released at 10am. So around that time I will try to remain pretty cautious of entering any new trades. Otherwise the rest of the day the market will be left alone from the influence of news. Right now we are trading at the 1240 area.

I will be looking for some possible weakness at the 1243.50 area through the Tick and/or volume. If we break that level I will test longs but still remain cautious with them beneath the 1251 area. Again I am not too confident in any longs beneath the 1251 area but should we show good signs of a reversal down at 1233 I will look at testing the long side.

9:50 We haven't really gone far from the open at this stage. Right now I suspect the news will need to hit before we decided to pick a direction at this point, if we pick one at all. Volume has been high as we moved marginally lower but is now tapering off on the 2 minute. The Tick has remained strong sticking above the zero line pretty well at this stage. Being so early there are no clear signs to me right now with either side. At this point I sit on the sidelines and wait until after the news hits. The safest way to be at this stage.

10:07 I entered short at 1245.75 with my stop at 1247. It was based on a push on news above resistance with a Tick extreme on big volume. We hung around the 1246 for a little bit of time but then pushed higher. I kept a relatively tight stop so I'm not too fussed. It wasn't following the plan exactly but I made the attempt. Next trade I will try to make it closer to the plan. The tick is showing strength sticking above the zero line and volume has supported the higher move at this point.

10:30 Hmm out for a loss again on the short side. I entered at 1247 with my stop at 1248.25 and my stop was hit. I wasn't at a resistance level again. I am trading the failure to push higher after the volume extreme and Tick extremes. Right now I am going to trade better if I stick to the plan. Volume has tapered off on this move sideways and the Tick hasn't made any strong moves beneath the zero area. This market is up so I am best working with that.

10:56 I'm in short at 1248.25 with my stop at 1249.50. Reason being the resistance area hit with a divergence on the Tick and lower volume on the second push higher. I just took my trade off for a tick gain as we weren't pushing beyond the zero area on the Tick. It was a risky trade and I wasn't willing to give it much space. This Tick has been showing stocks holding up like a mofo. Yet somehow I still would like to short the market.

11:23 I am definitely best leaving this market alone today. I have made some less than ideal trading decisions. I just shorted the market again at 1247.25 with my stop at 1248.50. The idea was a 1-2-3 top with the Tick moving into the negative for the first time today. Volume had also tapered off on the move. I'm going to call it a night right here and work on improving tomorrow. Considering I did many things that were not in my plan tonight I think I have come out pretty well. I do believe I have moved back into the short trading problems I had previously.

11:29 Well I just took another short trade for a point loss. Impulse trade mania. I'm closing my platform right now.

Daily Wrap Up

Wow is all I can say. I seemed to be on holiday last night whilst someone else took over and traded my account. I honestly am a bit confused as to where some of my decisions came from. Of 5 trades, really only one of them was according to my plan. It was the third trade which was a move from the 1251 resistance area with a divergence in the tick and declining volume.

Beyond that one trade at the resistance, I would have liked my focus to be turned to trading the long side. I'm not sure there is much I can say beyond recognizing the fact that most of my trades today were impulse based trades. This seems to be a recurring problem I face with my short trades. Not wanting to miss out on what is a "sure thing" move has me entering some short trades that don't exist or too early if they do exist.

The good part of today was that even though I took 4 out of 5 hits, I haven't taken a massive hit in my account. I much rather take the trades and lose so I have something to learn from rather than not trade and wonder what would have been. There is some learning to be done from today so I will accept the way I traded. It doesn't make me a bad trader, I just made some bad trades.

Today for following my focus I am giving myself an 'F'. The saving grace was that I did take a good trade at the resistance area even though it didn't pan out. It was the one trade that was in my plan and I did take it.

Trade 1a: 1.25 Loss
Trade 1b: 1.25 Loss
Trade 2a: 1.25 Loss
Trade 2b: 1.25 Loss
Trade 3a: 0.25 Win
Trade 3b: 0.25 Win
Trade 4a: 0.5 Loss
Trade 4b: 0.5 Loss
Trade 5a: 1.0 Loss
Trade 5b: 1.0 Loss

Daily Analysis on 23rd July 2008

Hello All



GBP/USD





Let's take a look on this daily chart





Yesterday candle is closed below the green line, it mean that we have a signal to go short (sell) and it mean make 38.2 fibonaci line (2.0029) as a resistance line. it'll go at least to 1.9840 then to 1.9760 then to 1.9560.



But, be careful because today we will have BOE minute at 8.30 GMT.



Forecast :



Swing Trader : Down



Recomendation:



Swing Trader : Sell TP: 1.9840, SL: 2.0035





Good Luck all

Trade Setup For 23rd July

Here are my zones for 23rd July:

Resistance

1277.25-1278.50
1285.75-1286.75
1290.50-1291.50
1300.50-1301.50

Support

1270.25-1269.25
1261.75-1263
1256-1255
1246-1245

My Outlook

The buyers came through with the goods late yesterday which is a positive sign. The NDX was in trouble at the open yesterday but all the indexes managed to come through with a good run.

Leading into 1280 on the SP and 11,760 area on the DJIA is some traffic that was caught out on this downward run. It may prove to be a battle to get through but the momentum is up at this stage.

The VIX pulled out a good downward move signaling a possible end to the big selling we have recently been seeing. Will it last longer than a couple of weeks or will it turn back down to continue this downward bias in the market?

Oil is helping bring some optimism back into the market with its decline. As long as that is occurring it is a good sign for companies which means equities get a boost. Gold attempted to make a run for higher prices yesterday but has seen some selling pressure hit.

The USD managed a better day yesterday but is far from out of the woods. Oil's decline will help the USD ease.

My Focus

The late run yesterday has opened up the doors for some continued buying tomorrow. Currently we are trading near the 1275 area. If we see a decline down to the 1270 area I will be looking for some strength to enter the market. If we go beyond there, the 1262 area will need to hold to keep the buyers in control.

I'm not keen on the selling side at this point so I will leave it be for the moment. I believe we will see some selling early on but the support levels are likely to garner some extra buying power. I won't cross it out at this point though, I will be prepared to short at the resistance levels should the market present some extremes up there.

I'm continuing to take a casual approach to my trading, not writing as much in my journal so I can focus on the market. Finding things to keep me occupied whilst we are away from my levels is keeping me from jumping in the market prematurely.

My stops are going to be placed behind strong areas and the initial target in easy to reach places as per normal. Things are going well right now so it's a matter of continuing to do more of the same and not becoming overconfident. I will look at making short trades with the live account but not hold myself restricted to that. I don't want any extra pressure placed on the trading.

Trade Setup For 8th July

Here are the areas I am watching for 8th July:

Resistance

1251.75-1253
1257.5-1258.50
1265-1266
1272-1272.75

Support

1243-1241.50

My Outlook

I guess one could speculate that this is going to turn soon but you could be thinking that for a long time. I'm going to keep a neutral bias as this thing could last a long time but also turn at the drop of a hat. From a longer term perspective the May highs just look like a breather in the downtrending market from Oct 07'.

The VIX continues its steady rise indicating that Put Option interest is slowly rising. What is most concerning about this rise is that it is slow and steady, just like the markets decline. I'm guessing many buyers are getting caught out mistaking the slow decline for signs of a turnaround. I know I thought that only last week.

The only positive note coming from this market right now is Oil's decline yesterday. Not a big sell off but it is a start. I suspect we could see a decent sized move lower at this juncture. Gold has moved down rather strongly from its range highs which also signals good things for the US. It is not pivotal though as we still sit in the range.

The USD has seen some strength over the past couple of days but it isn't anything to write home about. I'll keep my eye out for further declines that could signal the US economy gaining its strength and possibly some momentum.

My Focus

I want to be careful with this market now as it is in a very temperamental area. The pattern suggests further downward movement and I will stick with that until we see something stand out to say otherwise. We are currently at 1244 in the overnight market and my last support area is at 1242.

At the 1242 area I will be looking for some strength but any long positions will be kept on a tight leash right now as other areas don't suggest a strong move higher just yet. If we open beneath 1252 I would look for some weakness if we reach that area.

If we gap above the 1252 area I would think 1265 needs to be exceeded and held to turn into a buyers market. If we gap open beneath 1242, I think all bets may be off for buying and would look for some weakness at 1242.

At the s/r levels I am watching for weakness or strength seen from the Tick and Volume. All stops are placed behind strong market areas and the initial profit target will be put in an easy to reach place. The second lot will be trailed if the first lot is taken.

To address the problem I had yesterday with exiting prematurely, I will state the reasons for exiting early according to price, Tick and Volume analysis. I will also continue using the opening gap strategy with the simulation account and also the offsetting strategy.