Showing posts with label National Association of Realtors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Association of Realtors. Show all posts

Trading Steup For 22nd July

Here is my journal from the 22nd July:

There is no major news again today so we are left to trade on our own. There are a few different news announcements but none are major. We haven't moved far from the 1252 area so the game plan is still the same as earlier. 1256 may be a resistance point but more in focus is 1262. Beneath 1252 the 1245 area is a spot for a bounce but I think we are more likely to sell down. Again I'm going to be taking things pretty casually.

9:47 Who knows? We opened at the 1251 area and have been hanging around 1250 since the open. Volume isn't telling me much at this stage. The Tick was pretty negative at the open but has managed to build up to where we are now. It is attempting to push the boundaries into positive territory. The NQ opened with a fair whack down so something technology related must be pulling at the market. For now, sit back and enjoy the ride.

10:30
The market has been moving higher from the lower open. We reached as high as the 1260 area before making a volume and Tick extreme. It would have been nice for it to occur closer to my resistance area at 1262 but not to worry. There are plenty more opportunities to present themselves in the market. I'll keep my eye on the 1252 area should we show some strength down there. I would keep a tight leash on any long trades at this point as I think we are currently continuing yesterdays tone down. Volume at this point has been increasing on the upside swings though and declining on the downside swings which is interesting.

10:51 I'm in short at 1257.25 with my stop at 1259. Initial profit target is at 1255.25. We need to drop beneath the 1257 area pretty quickly otherwise it could bounce higher. Reasons for entry was the 1-2-3 top just beneath the 1262 resistance area. I suspect I had my resistance area a bit off. Also have the extremes on the tick and volume at the top. Initial target is taken so the second lot stop has been moved to 1258. 1254 could be an area of concern and then 1252 is the decider if we reach that.

11:02 The second position I was trailing was stopped out at 1258 for a 0.75 loss. Gain of 1.25 points on the trade. We couldn't sustain the selling from the stocks as seen by the Tick.

11:10 In short again at 1260.75. This time it's for actually reaching the resistance area on a couple of tick extremes and big volume. Stop is at 1262.75 which is probably not necessary but it gives it some time to move. I could be trying too hard to go against the trend with my short trades but its in the plan. I am in earlier on this than I have previously been entering shorts. I need to have more patience with this and expect it to move against me a bit prior to possibly moving lower.

11:19 I took my position off for a 0.25 gain as we weren't showing follow through selling from the stocks. I believe I was a bit early on the move which is another reminder for my short trading. What the good part of that though was that I recognized I was entering early so I knew what I was getting into and could be prepared mentally for some movement. There may be a second chance to short but for now I'll wait.

11:31 How many times can I short this market? In short again at 1262.50 for the resistance area up here with extremes registering on the Tick but volume not supporting the higher move at this point. Stop is at 1263.75 and initial profit target at 1260.75. Finally starting to see the Tick hit under the zero area.

11:37 Bringing stop down to 1263.25 as we shouldn't reach there if we are going lower.

11:51 We spent some time moving sideways and have continued the move lower right now. I have brought my stop down to 1262.50 so I don't take a loss on this trailed position. 1258.50 is looking like it will be an area of concern for the sellers at this point so I will assess the action if we reach there.

11:57 I took an exit at 1258.75 as we are slowing down there and some stacked orders are in for the buyers. Could be premature but for now I'd rather take the gains and get some sleep. The Tick was showing signs of strength from the stocks. Well it is time for me to go to bed.

I was trying to fight the trend all day which isn't great but the upside is that I managed to extract a few points from the market doing so. The first trade wasn't ideally part of the plan but was a solid pattern. I thought that maybe I missed the right resistance area but later on the market showed me I did have a good level there. A good day.

Daily Wrap Up

Beyond fighting the day's trend I think the day was good. I mainly traded at the resistance zones and the only trade I didn't was due to thinking I may have misplaced my area. It was a trade I would take again though.

I kept my stops pretty tight, the second trade was a good example of that as I let the market have some space but recognized we were having trouble moving lower. I noticed the Tick was pretty positive the whole day but didn't have any strong opportunities to go long with the market.

The casual approach worked well again and allows me to give my trades a bit more room. I need to be careful of trading simulation too much though as I am at the stage where it can probably do more harm than good right now. For following my focus I give myself a 'C'.

Trade 1a: 2.0 Win
Trade 1b: 0.75 Loss
Trade 2a: 0.25 Win
Trade 2b: 0.25 Win
Trade 3a: 1.75 Win
Trade 3b: 3.75 Win

Daily Result: 7.25 Gain
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Trade Setup For 8th July

Here are the areas I am watching for 8th July:

Resistance

1251.75-1253
1257.5-1258.50
1265-1266
1272-1272.75

Support

1243-1241.50

My Outlook

I guess one could speculate that this is going to turn soon but you could be thinking that for a long time. I'm going to keep a neutral bias as this thing could last a long time but also turn at the drop of a hat. From a longer term perspective the May highs just look like a breather in the downtrending market from Oct 07'.

The VIX continues its steady rise indicating that Put Option interest is slowly rising. What is most concerning about this rise is that it is slow and steady, just like the markets decline. I'm guessing many buyers are getting caught out mistaking the slow decline for signs of a turnaround. I know I thought that only last week.

The only positive note coming from this market right now is Oil's decline yesterday. Not a big sell off but it is a start. I suspect we could see a decent sized move lower at this juncture. Gold has moved down rather strongly from its range highs which also signals good things for the US. It is not pivotal though as we still sit in the range.

The USD has seen some strength over the past couple of days but it isn't anything to write home about. I'll keep my eye out for further declines that could signal the US economy gaining its strength and possibly some momentum.

My Focus

I want to be careful with this market now as it is in a very temperamental area. The pattern suggests further downward movement and I will stick with that until we see something stand out to say otherwise. We are currently at 1244 in the overnight market and my last support area is at 1242.

At the 1242 area I will be looking for some strength but any long positions will be kept on a tight leash right now as other areas don't suggest a strong move higher just yet. If we open beneath 1252 I would look for some weakness if we reach that area.

If we gap above the 1252 area I would think 1265 needs to be exceeded and held to turn into a buyers market. If we gap open beneath 1242, I think all bets may be off for buying and would look for some weakness at 1242.

At the s/r levels I am watching for weakness or strength seen from the Tick and Volume. All stops are placed behind strong market areas and the initial profit target will be put in an easy to reach place. The second lot will be trailed if the first lot is taken.

To address the problem I had yesterday with exiting prematurely, I will state the reasons for exiting early according to price, Tick and Volume analysis. I will also continue using the opening gap strategy with the simulation account and also the offsetting strategy.
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